The Holy Grail of Trading- or is it all scam?

Based on my incoming emails, there are many to lay claim to the Holy Grail of Trading.  So, who has the best approach?  Is there such a thing, as a one and only or the very best of the best when it comes to trading?

Certainly! The truth lies more in your mind than it does in the mind of others.  Your Holy Grail will be what works for you.  To simply take what someone else is doing and claiming it as your own method is a fairy tale at best and a lie to yourself at worst.  But we do wish that could be true, do we not?  If that were true does that not discount the value of years of experience actually trading successfully?

Where to Go From Here

So, I suppose now is the time to throw your hands in the air and give up, right?  Hold on quick draw, there is more to consider.  What if you are able to see what others are doing and see how it feels and see how it works?  Same thing as claiming what they have as your own you say?  On the contrary,  by trying to fit it into your own personal profile of temperament, patience, knowledge level, fear level, trust in your system, chart smarts, and trading experience you, are not accepting it but rather gleaning from it what might be to your advantage and refining your approach. 

How Soon Can I Start

You do not have to wait years to begin trading, but you do have to go through the basics. You cannot wait until you know it all, else you will never begin.  Becoming a trade wizard is a growing process and we all begin at the beginning; there is no short cut.

Is It Really That Easy

Herein lies the caveat, is the source offering you information through their tools or is what they offer a 1,2,3 step by step that purports to give you guess even for the uninformed?  If it is the latter, beware.  If you are looking for ways to be more successful trading, look for those tools that will aid that person as described by your personal profile to help you develop your own methodology tailored to you. You cannot deny who you are.  It is very difficult to repackage yourself, though there are some things you can do.

How To Fix It 

With experience you will learn to trust your own workable system that will help you reduce your fear of losses.  And when you find patience, it will become your best friend.  The more you understand the more patient you will become.  Confidence builds patience and patience promotes consistency.  Consistent realistic results, as you define them, are what you seek.

What Happened To Me

When I go back over my swing trading history, it shows scores of losses that far outnumber the number of gains.  But the value of the gains are much greater than the losses.  My personal profile is comfortable with accepting many minimal losses against fewer greater gains.  As long as the ratio holds true, I will always be profitable.  I use my system to insure that always happens.

Life Is Easier Now

My system tells me, not only when to get in, but when to get out.  All of that information is computed before I actually enter the trade.  At this point trading is simple, uncomplicated and stress free.  When I traded futures it was not so.  I still made money, but it was a stressful experience.  My personal profile was uncomfortable with that scenario and much like leaving a job you do not like, I left a trading environment that did not feel comfortable.  It was sometime later that I discovered that most day traders are not successful; it was the old 80/20 rule where 80% of the money was made by 20% of the traders. I was one of the 20% and yet I had to move on.

Learning Comes In Stages

In the beginning, I thought day trading was the way to go.  That was before I worked out my personal profile.  Anyone who offers you tools to support you and your personal profile might be offering you a chance to improve your trading results.  That is the reason I started Tested Wisdom.Com.  It was to provide resources to traders that want to develop their own proven methodology, in other words their experience and our tools would provide them with their own Tested Wisdom that evolves into their own system.

The Next Step

So my first suggestion to you is as follow:  Work on your personal profile and define who you really are.  Be honest with yourself. I know that can be hard, but since no one else will see it let it happen.  After accepting that profile you can find tools to help you work around some of those sticky traits and some tools that might actually help you overcome those negative traits.  Remember this:  Short of being a sociopath all new traders shared some of the same traits.

Let Us Know

If you care to, investigate what we have to offer.  If you have questions, do not hesitate to ask.  We are just traders and we are not so important that will not take time and try to help you.  People still matter and believe or not so do traders.

Find the Right Trade

On the attached presentation, I explain how to find those special securities among the thousands that are available for you to trade.  This presentation it is dedicated to swing trading, so if you have no interest in the method that has proven to be the most profitable (on the average) for retail traders, then you will have to wait until I do one for day traders.  But if you are like millions of people who rely on the longer more enduring movement of the market rather than the daily blips this is definitely for you. 

I will admit, it is not the fastest way to make money, but it is surely the least risky to be certain.  Risk and return go hand in hand.  Unfortunately, approximately 80% of the money is made for 20% of the traders in the short term or day traders market.  If you think the “Oracle of Omaha”, Warren Buffett,  got his start day trading, think again.  He was a value investor from the first and still is today.  So, now I have made my pitch to give swing trading a chance, so I will invite you to review the attached video.  You owe to yourself to see the first few minutes of it before you decide it is not for you.

This post is dedicated to finding the right swing trade from among the many possibilities that exist. It explains an easy way to dig them out and separate into the most desirable and then deciding on the best of the bunch.

It is an unique approach you may not have considered before. Give it a look see and see if you agree with me. I am sure you will not regret it; it costs you absolutely nothing and there are no sales pitches attached.

Link to video

How to Play the $12 Trillion 5G Revolution

I can no take credit for this article, though I see where it might have value. So, I have posted this for your review in hopes it might offer you additional insight to use as you choose.

Few tech trends have fueled as much excitement as 5G, the global push to bring us faster and more efficient Internet. Representing the next generation of mobile Internet, 5G is expected to create $12 trillion in new economic activity. The cloud-based mobile technology will disrupt existing markets and create new investment opportunities. 5G is still in its infancy – the first networks went online less than two months ago – but investment plays are already popping up.

This article is a primer on this emerging technology and how to integrate 5G into your investment strategy – capturing your slice of a multi-trillion revolution. What does 5G mean for economic growth? 5G technology (short for “fifth generation cellular network technology”) was first developed in late 2017, with the first networks coming online earlier this year. South Korea became the first country to launch 5G – according to a report from the BBC, more than one million South Koreans have already signed up for the service, outpacing the uptake of 4G back in 2011. Since then, the US, Bahrain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom have all launched their own networks.

In a few years, it will be the global standard. 5G is going to generate massive economic growth. According to The 5G Economy, a widely-cited study by IHS Markit, Penn Schoen Berland, and Berkley Research Group, the new technology could enable $12.3 trillion in new goods and services by 2035. That’s roughly equal to US consumer spending in 2016. About $3.5 trillion will be generated by the 5G mobile value chain alone. For that to happen, a lot of new infrastructure needs to be built. Annual investment of about $200 billion is needed to reach the $12.3 trillion mark. The infrastructure push is already creating lots of opportunities for stock market investors.

What makes it different from 4G? The main difference is capacity. 5G is almost entirely cloud based. That makes it more efficient, with the extra capacity translating directly into faster speeds. 4G connections usually offer download speeds of about 20Mbps, allowing the user to download a two-hour movie in about 30 minutes. 5G will deliver speeds of 500 to 1500Mbps, enough to download that same movie in about 25 seconds. But 5G promises benefits beyond faster downloads.

Better coverage is another factor. A single 5G cellular tower can cover roughly 100 times more devices than can a 4G tower. Coverage areas will expand significantly. Latency will also decrease. Industry jargon for the time between a user issuing a command and the device giving a response, latency promises to be 1 millisecond or less in 5G-connected devices.

This real-time interactivity will enable innovations like the Internet of Things (IoT) and self-driving cars, driving much of the economic growth associated with 5G. Then, there’s the estimated 90% reduction in energy usage from 4G to 5G. According to the report from IHS Markit, the battery life for some low-power devices could be up to 10 years. This will allow IOT-connected devices to operate for longer without human assistance. And don’t sleep on IoT, which could now kick into high gear. 5G, with its increased capacity and faster response times, is well-suited to enable Internet connections between devices. GSMA estimates there will be 25.2 billion IoT-connected devices by 2015 (up from 9.1 billion in 2018), growth largely driven by 5G connectivity. ETF trades to watch 5G isn’t yet available to most consumers, but it already presents opportunities for ETF traders.

The following ETFs show the most promise as 5G networks roll out over the next few years. First, start watching the Defiance 5G Next Hen Connectivity ETF (FIVG). This ETF launched in March and directly tracks the Bluestar 5G Communications Index. The Bluestar covers companies that directly contribute to 5G network development. Leading assets include XLNX (5.93% of total assets), Ericsson (5.75%), and Skyworks (4.99%). The ETF is currently trading at $23.96, down slightly from its opening on March 5.

Next, look to the ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF (DTEC). The DTEC has outpaced the S&P 500, gaining 22% since the start of the year. It is roughly indexed to the Indxx Disruptive Technologies Index, which covers companies using disruptive technologies in several areas. Each of these areas – IoT, healthcare, Smart Grid, Cloud Computing, AI, and more – are poised to benefit from 5G. Major holdings include Okta (1.42% of total assets), LendingTree (1.25%), and Silicon Laboratories (1.22%).

Another fund to watch is the Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure Real Estate ETF (SRVR). Now trading at $30.34, the SRVR is up 32% since the year began. The fund includes data center operators (ex: Equinix) and wireless communications real estate (ex: American Tower). These subsectors will get a turbocharge from 5G, which is why the SRVR is outpacing the S&P 500 nearly threefold.

The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) could also get a boost from 5G. The ARKF covers Fintech service providers (mobile banking, lending, money transfers, etc.). These companies, including TenCent Holdings (6.44% of assets), Apple (5.56%), and PayPal (4.12%), stand to benefit from 5G. With faster Internet, lower latency, and better coverage, 5G will allow Fintech providers to deliver better services to more clients. As of June 19, the ARKF was trading at $22.51, up 10.3% from its launch on February 4.

How to trade the Huawei controversy While the future is 5G, uptake is being slowed by the ongoing US-China trade dispute. This has serious implications for investors, especially in the short term. On May 15, the White House announced a ban on US companies doing business with Huawei, a Chinese mobile tech manufacturer. Huawei is the world’s largest provider of communications equipment and, prior to the ban, Huawei was building 5G networks in countries around the world. The ban is politically motivated. The White House placed Huawei on the “Entity List,” a group of 190 companies and individuals considered to be security threats. Huawei is a private company that nonetheless has close ties to the Chinese government.

By preventing it from building 5G networks, the White House hopes to deny Beijing the ability to control the international communications space. The ban has been mirrored by countries including Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, with others (UK, Canada, France, Germany) considering similar bans. Whatever one thinks about the politics, the dispute has been a drag on stock markets. It has slowed buying of US semiconductor stocks, including for the chipmakers mentioned in this article.

While one can’t quantify exactly how much the ban has affected semiconductor stocks, it’s no coincidence that Qualcomm, Xilinx, and Skyworks each tumbled after the White House announced the ban. The book is yet to close. Some analysts speculate that a US-China trade deal (if it happens), will involve lifting the ban. Earlier this month, Russell T. Vought, the acting director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, asked for a two-year delay, arguing that the ban puts too great a burden on US telecom manufacturers. However, even if the ban continues, the 5G revolution is already underway.

While you are here, since you are already on the website you might want to register to be included on our email list if you have not already done so. I won’t pester you with daily emails, only when I think I have something of value that might be of interest to you. This articles is an example of that. Just go to the home page and subscribe.

Yikes! I am losing my shirt

For investors, the first temptation when market turmoil erupts is to just do something; an urge that usually results in selling, an action that often concludes in regret and maybe losing your shirt indeed.

For others, the impulse is to do nothing and sit on your hands until the storm passes, because it always does. Still others see opportunity at every turn and jump in with both feet.

The best course, though, lies somewhere between. Indiscriminate selling is a fool’s game; willy-nilly buying assumes you know when the end is in sight; doing nothing risks getting caught in a vortex that could take years to escape.

Figuring out how to navigate such an environment requires both a cool head and a willingness to acknowledge where common sense adjustments are needed without going overboard. Investors were caught in a tough spot as stocks declined aggressively this week amid fears of a recession and a trade war with China.  But those of you who read the “Insanity” email know it is more of the same and not necessarily a map to the end game.  Take a look at the longer picture.

Take a “never fight the Fed” mentality, while central bank action is important, assuming that their actions will last forever is a huge mistake. Rather concentrate on the core principles to guide investing and to avoid the urge to chase rallies or panic in sell-offs.

The vast majority of your portfolio, you probably literally should take sort of a once a year approach towards it. Set it in motion and revisit it once a year. If you just can’t stand that, then give yourself a small portion of your portfolio that you can play with during the year. If you screw that up, it won’t screw up your overall portfolio. At least it gives you enough chance to stay sharp.

You hear talk about the rear view mirror and performance chase. So, turn the mirror to yourself and understand who you are as an investor, what are the things that are going to trip you up. True risk tolerance is, ‘How much can my portfolio decline before I make a really dumb decision and panic and do something that turns out to be a really wrong decision?’

Now if you are a solely a day trader rather than an investor, pretty much everything I said is of no importance to you, but it is good advice in any case.

Does Insanity reign?

If you take a look at the last couple of days, you can see where emotion rather than rationality commands the market.  This is a good thing to watch, as it confirms that the market is a place often dominated by fear.  Fear can be a powerful force causing people to act quickly without thinking through the consequences of their actions.  This is the exact reason that some people become heroes. There may be times when havoc is upon them and without thinking it through, they do things they would otherwise not do. From that a Hero is born.  Thank goodness we have them among us, for the world is better with them than without them.  But that emotional quality is not something you want to control your trading.

This most current market volatility should have come without surprise.  We were thrilled to see the rise yesterday and now we grimace at the dive of today?  So, in short I am saying to you is that the market has been highly unstable lately and if you feel that it is causing you difficulty, then simply stay out of it.  You all know that a market falls much faster than it rises because fear is stronger than greed.  And fear and greed are pretty much the primary drivers of the market even if we do not care to think so.  We would much rather think that our superior intellect and sharp trading skills will always give us the edge.  But if we do not factor in the emotions of the market they will bite you every time.  

So, how bad is it anyway?  Well, let us compare to the past.

This looks like a regular day trading chart but, in fact, it is a weekly chart for the last 3 years.  It is a bit difficult to read so I will explain it.

The first box of blue and gold lines is actually the high and low of the period defined by the two vertical time lines.

The first box shows a spread of 357 points from the high to low of the period from 1/29/18 to 3/19/18.

The second box shows a spread of 652 points from the high to low of the period from 9/25/2018 to12/16/2018.

The last box is for a current period with a spread of 297 points for the period between 5/26/2019 to 8/14/2019.

So, in fact, it is not as gloomy as we seem to perceive. In fact, I just checked the 30 and 90 m charts and they both have Doji candles so maybe they have found a bottom for the day.

Yet, this is not the kind of market I care to trade.  So, I don’t.  There will always be another day and trying to make something happen in an environment that is unsuitable to one’s personal trading style is not wise.  There are some of you who really love this violent “hair on fire” thrill runs buying and selling on the flip of the short trend.  If you have the stomach for it and can stand the whipsaws then you should be very happy right now.

This little post is just to remind you that the market will do what it wants, when it wants and we have to live with.  As long as we respect it and respond with reason we will be profitable.  Do not be in a hurry, nor allow yourselves to be caught up in the grips of emotion.  It is just another day.

Finally They Are Here!!

Attached to this page is a link that will lead you to the first two of the long
promised releases of the new TW Power Trade, TWSRT, TW STM Mgr, TW conditional order module, TW condition exit module and the TW Vol w/avg.

Take a look at the first of the releases. More will follow soon.

Once you have had the opportunity to put these into play you will have a totally new perspective on how to make money in the stock market. I have been trading them for some time now and I can assure you they work extremely well. I am sure they will benefit you greatly.

The videos are short and to the point. You won’t find a whole lot of fluff, just the facts. Time it too precious to waste. Once it gone it is gone. So do
not delay get started right away.

Get started here TO THE RELEASES

Do not hesitate to contact me to let me know what you think.

See you on the other side.

Gary Odom
https://testedwisdom.com

Stress Free and Free Free

The last couple of posts related to software. One post was in regards to stress free trading and that is coming along nicely. I have been trading it daily making sure the gears are engaged and everything is properly lubricated. The other post had to do with Free software.

After dwelling on it for a while I realized that they both were stress free to some extent and I have added yet another Free software offer to the Free Stuff tab of the website. This one deals with Trade Management. Entries are important, and trade management may be even more critical. This little bit of software will help you make decisions before you even enter the trade. Once that is done just follow your nose. So more stress free stuff, right?

To learn more about it, just click over to the Free Stuff. Maybe I need to call it Stress Free Stuff.

The Free Stuff tab is reserved for registered members as many of you are members as well as on the mailing list. But if you are not registered, it is a very easy process. I think you will like the addition. It even has a video explaining what is going on. Just look for TWTradeMgmt.

Just click here Free Stuff.

Stress Free Trading

Some time ago I sent out an email with the following link:
Order Entry Setup

Frankly, I did not get much response from it. I must admit I was puzzled since it had been so profitable to me. It offered free software and still does, but yet, I do not believe I had any takers. I will admit, I have a very selective mailing list as I do not want to become more involved in marketing than trading and creation of better trading techniques. It is not unlike me to purge names from the list of those who will not remove themselves. If you are not interested in receiving these emails, PLEASE UNSUBSCRIBE from the mailing list. I spend too much time and effort working on these trading systems to send it to someone who has no interest.

But that is rather beside the point for this post. That little study led me on to bigger and better things that allows me to set up trades and walk away knowing that all aspects of my trading will be handled. I have many entry options, and even more importantly, now more exit options. One can always set profit targets, but it is guess work as to where to set them since no one knows how long a run will last ahead of time. I have created exit options that will exit the trade when it goes against you as well as after it appears to have reached max profit. Of course, I have left in the safety features to assure you your risk is limited.

Currently, I set up various trades that include results from the TWPT combined with the TWSRT and Zone trades with momentum detectors and can even parallel with the TWPT and the TWSRT. I set up on four to five symbols at a time. I sometime setup both long and short trades on the same chart to catch whatever this volatile market has to offer.

The coding has been completed reviewed and changed numerous times, each time with improved results. I sometimes had too many variables trying to include all aspects, actually creating more problems than solving them. In time, the proper balance between flexibility and ease of use was reached. With the use of templates in most cases, the trade entry entails just a few clicks of the mouse. All the testing was done on live trading as simulated is never like the real thing. Yes, I lost money on some trades and made great money on others. Those losses allowed me to find out what went wrong and correct the problem so it did not happen again. In the end, my system produces those results we all look for, limited losses and unlimited gains.

The entire system dovetails with the TOS system of conditional order entry. The TW Conditional Order entry and exit system compensates for the lack of features in the TOS conditional order system and overcomes the limitations of study applications.

In case you haven’t noticed, I am excited by this and love the ability to walk away from my computer while the trading carries on. I will be creating an instruction manual (not sure if it will be video or pdf) just before the release of the package so one can see all what needs to be considered and exactly how to gain stress free trading.

I will be producing a video series (probably about three or four videos) that will cover the entire system. I will include actual examples of how to set the system up, how to implement trades and what the options there are available. Be patient, it takes a while to produce videos of live trading and produce a clean production.

See you on the other side;

Gary Odom

Why Short Trades?

The title is “Why Short Trades”, because in the process of crunching data and looking at outcomes, a very simple concept was clearly identified. I have always known it was factual, but now when I sliced and diced everything out, I actually saw how it was driven by the individual traders.  We have always heard that short trades manifest themselves more quickly than long trades.  Well, generally, that is true.  Ever wonder why?  If you have, here is why.

I have spoken before on how emotions effect the market.  Some of you blew it off and others took notice.  The latter group was the most astute in doing so, for emotion has a dramatic impact on the market.  That emotion explains why short trades move faster than long trades.  That also explains why I love going short.  For quick day trades, shorts are your best bet.  But then in a highly bullish market they may not be that readily available.  Lately, the market has been giving us a lot of opportunity to make money with short plays.  If you are trading futures, you already have a margin account so you are ready to go.

If you are only interested in buying and holding this information will still have value to you.  However, in your case it will not be for making trades but for exiting them.  So if you are a investor or swing trader do not go away.  Here is the story by way of an example.

Joe Jumpstart loves playing the futures.  When things are going smoothly he is happy to just hang in.  But when the going gets rough and prices start to drop he is the first to pull the plug and sells his position.  He and others like him will cause increased volume to the downside as the fear of loss causes them to exit and as those still in position see this, they follow the lead. It has a snow ball effect.  Why?  Fear!  The more that sell the higher the fear factor and the more that will sell causing price to drop very rapidly.

So how does this make you money?  Simple, take advantage of the fear.  If you hold a position exit, for twice of what you hold.  If not, short a position and ride it until it first starts to make a break in the move.  If you are trading a 15 min chart perhaps a two or three candle retrace on the 5 min chart will be enough for you to exit your short position.  Yes, you might miss some of the move, but then you will not get whipped sawed at the bottom when the rest the crowd is trying to recover their losses by playing the retrace.  It is like eating a watermelon, the center is the sweetest and that is what you want, the middle of the move.  Think about the time you exited a position and watched price keep going down and you were relieved that you did not stay in.  But the fact is, you lost money by not just reversing your position.  You even have a tab on the top of your charts to do that.  One click and you are in short.

The inverse of this is a long move where there is an absence of fear, but it is replaced by greed.  That often causes traders to lose money because they get in at the wrong time.  There is not that fear of loss that is pushing the move only the greed of wanting to catch the move.  Fear is stronger than greed.  And since you do not have the larger volume to drive it, it will normally be much shorter in duration.  If your timing is not incredible good, you will be whipped sawed when it flips over.  Avoid chasing price as you will generally get stung.

Now, a caveat.  I do not recommend this type of trading on a regular basis.  Your trading should be based on sound principles and a good trading plan.  But occasionally you will be presented a unique opportunity to catch some of these moves.  Just be cautious and do not push an entry.  If you were there in time and read the move early enough you will probably be ok, but trying to push it when it is too late in the move will be disastrous, do not do it.  It will take some practice and skills to get a really good read on the condition of the move, but that will come with experience.  Just knowing the possibilities, will have you looking for them and that is never a bad thing.

If you want to investigate learning how to get in on those moves, you must become very good at reading price.  Many of these moves happen much too fast to rely on any indicator or trading tool.  I am developing a trade trigger for the auto system that will be dedicated to fast moves and quick exits and works on price alone.  It is early in the game. I did some testing with it on Friday and the results are promising but not yet ready for prime time.  More on that later.

I have been doing a lot of scripting lately working on some new ideas.  One idea is auto trading.  Trying to get everything to work and still play in the TOS playground is sometimes challenging.  On Monday, I will be conferencing with the ThinkOrSwim people who are regarded as informed in the areas that I will be investigating.  By sharing screens we can get more information presented in shorter periods of time.  I sometimes do the same when I am providing support for my own studies and they cannot be answered with a simple email or phone call.  So, the outcome should be interesting and I am really looking forward to our appointment.  More on that later. 


Happy Trading
See you on the other side,

Gary Odom

Your Success Is In Question

I am troubled by your response. It is not from the lack of activity but rather from the lack of your interest. My last post to you dealt with trading psychology and I saw that fewer than average bothered to view it. That really concerns me because psychology is an important key to success.

The purpose if this post is not to send you back to read that post, but rather to caution you about avoiding things that will determine your success or failure. You may or may not have noticed that my posts are not sell pieces but rather an effort to help you understand the path to success. I have already accomplished that goal and I have a constant income to provide for my needs.

My future is not dependent on your purchase of my products. I continue to write new studies that address the constantly changing market environment and I do so more so for my own needs than developing a product to be sold. The selling of the product comes only after it helps me achieve my own personal goals. Others have helped me get to where I am today and now it is my turn to help those seeking it.

Maybe you think you have gotten a handle on this trading business. But if you have already done that, why are you still seeking an answer of how to do it? Did you really think it would be so simple that it would not require some effort on your part? I won’t lie to you. It is not easy, it is hard. If it were so easy then why are so many still struggling to become a successful trader? Why are 80% of those who are in the market unsuccessful? Why is the market place filled with those offering “simple ways to beat the market”? It is because there is always someone looking for an easy way to do a complex task. It does not exist.

I wish I could tell you that by buying the Power Trader you would have immediate success. I cannot tell you that as I would be a fraud. Can it help you? Probably, but not certainly. I can provide you with all the tools at hand, but if you do not use them and use them correctly they will not help you.

I encourage you to be curious and question all things. Even question what I tell you. For in doing so, you will learn what is true and what is false. It is through that questioning you will acquire wisdom of this crazy business of trading. Some of what we know today will not be so tomorrow; some of what we know today will be true forever. It is to the seeker to determine the difference. If my comments cannot stand your review then they are not fit to be published. I am confident I will never lead you astray. Take what you wish, leave behind that in which you do not see value, but never discount it before questioning.

See you on the other side